为什么说通过贸易战实现“美国优先”是天方夜谭？

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既滑稽又全然违背国际贸易规律

Both ridiculous and in violation of the laws on international trade

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美国发起的贸易战引起全球公愤，各个国家大部分的企业和国际组织都在批评美国的行径。原因有三：

The trade war provoked by the United States has caused public indignation around the world. Most of the enterprises in various countries, and most international organizations, are criticizing the United States for launching this trade war. There are three reasons for such indignation.

第一，美国发起贸易战毫无国际规则的合法依据。美国发起这一轮贸易战主要依据美国《1930年关税法》和《1974年贸易法》，这些都是美国国内法律。一个国家依据自己国内的法律法规对其他国家进行制裁，这种行为毫无道理。美国显然把世贸组织、联合国贸发组织等国际贸易组织完全放在一边，不顾国际贸易规则，抡起“关税大棒”，试图制裁中国以及美国自己的盟友国家(加拿大、澳大利亚、日本、韩国等)，这种做法既违背国际法，也违背国际贸易规律。

Firstly, there is no legitimate basis for the U.S.-provoked trade war according to the international rules. The U.S. launched the trade war mainly on the basis of the Smoot-HawleyTariff Act of 1930and theTrade Act of 1974which are domestic laws of the U.S. It is completely unreasonable and illegal for a country to impose sanctions on other countries in accordance with its own domestic laws and regulations. Obviously, the U.S. is holding high the “big stick of tariffs” — regardless of the international trade rules, and sidelining the international trade organizations including World Trade Organization and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development — to sanction China and even its own allies (including Canada, Australia, Japan, Korea and others), which is violation of the international law, and the law of international trade.

第二，美国想解决贸易逆差问题却违背经济规律和贸易规律。美国与103个国家和地区有贸易逆差。美国想解决贸易逆差问题，但是贸易逆差还是继续大幅上升。美国经济分析局和人口普查局公布的数据显示，除却服务贸易，2017年美国贸易逆差为8074.95亿美元，2018年达到8913.20亿美元。

Secondly, the U.S. wants to solve the trade deficits issue, but violates the laws of economics and trade. The U.S. has trade deficits with 103 countries. The U.S. hopes to solve the problem of trade deficits, yet its policies achieve the opposite result. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. international trade deficit (excluding the service trade) was $807.50 billion in 2017 and $891.32 billion in 2018.

美国挑起和中国、日本、印度、欧盟等国家和地区的贸易战，所有结果都一样，贸易逆差不降反升。这是因为美国市场需要从世界各国进口货物，只有这样才能满足美国国内需求。所以责任在美国，发生问题的源头在美国。美国对因市场供求关系而形成的贸易结果进行所谓的制裁，既滑稽又全然违背国际贸易规律。这种制裁必然是两败俱伤，也必将严重影响美国和各贸易国的关系。

The results of the trade war launched by the U.S. against China, Japan, India, the EU and other countries and regions are the same. Trade deficits have increased rather than dropped. The U.S. market requires imported goods from all over the world to satisfy its domestic needs. Therefore, the U.S. is the source of the problem and should be held accountable for the consequences. The so-called sanctions imposed by the U.S. on the results of trade based on market supply and demand are both ridiculous and in violation of the laws on international trade. With both sides suffering from sanctions, such policies stand to seriously influence the relationship between the U.S. and its trade partners.

第三，美国发起贸易战的负面效应将殃及全球。从联合国贸发会议2018年发布的年度世界投资报告来看，2017年全球外商直接投资额下降23%，2018年上半年全球下降41%，发达国家全年下降40%以上。

Thirdly, the negative influence of the U.S.-provoked trade war will affect the global economy. According to the world investment report published by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 2018, direct foreign investment worldwide dropped by 23% in 2017 and 41% in the first half of 2018. Additionally, it has dropped by over 40% among developed countries in 2018.

虽然中国去年吸收对外投资还上升了3%，但是，这样的增速和以往相比也是大幅度下降的。2017年和2018年，全球国际贸易增长也大幅度下降。更大的风险来自于贸易战的继续深化，国际货币基金组织已经连续三次下调2019年全球经济增速预测，从3.9%到3.7%，从3.7%到3.5%再到3.3%，经济增长的下行完全是美国发起贸易战给世界经济带来不确定性和风险所造成的。所以，现在各个国家特别是和美国有贸易关系的国家对美国这一套做法都嗤之以鼻，坚决反对。美国实际上是在倒逼全世界、特别是美国的贸易国站到一条“统一战线”上。美国已成为全球正常贸易秩序的肇事者、搅局者，必然受到全世界的反对、制裁和谴责。

Although foreign direct investment in China has increased 3% last year, the foreign investment growth rate dropped significantly. Global trade growth rate also dropped sharply in 2017 and 2018. And still, the deepening of the trade war brings even greater risks. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its global economic growth rate estimate for 2019 three times in a row from 3.9% to 3.7%, then to 3.5% and finally to 3.3%. This economic down turn has been completely caused by the uncertainty and risk the world economy faces as a result of the trade war launched by the U.S. Therefore, all countries, particularly those withestablished trade relations with the U.S., are scornful of and resolutely oppose the actions of the U.S. In fact, the U.S. is attemptingto force the whole world, especially its trade partners, into a "united front". As the troublemaker and spoiler of the normal trade order worldwide, the U.S. is bound to be opposed, sanctioned and condemned by the whole world.

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这种违背经济规律的做法只能加速美国的衰落

Practices against the laws of economics will merely accelerate the decline of the U.S.

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另外，美国试图通过贸易战打造“美国第一”“美国优先”，实现所谓的“美国利益至上”，这基本上是天方夜谭。这是因为：

Inaddition, the U.S. is trying to create an "America First" policy and realize so-called "American Supremacy" through the trade war, which is just a fantasy. The reasons why this is a fantasy are as follows：

首先，全球产业链、供应链、服务链、价值链紧密相关，而美国还在用传统的办法来打现代贸易战。我们知道，现在全球贸易的三分之二是中间品、投资品。美国对我国500亿美元商品加征关税，这些商品中73%是中间品和投资品，对我国2000亿美元商品加征关税时，其中78%是中间品和投资品。

Firstly, the global industrial chain, supply chain, service chain and value chain are closely linked, yet the U.S. is still using traditional methods to wage a modern trade war. As we all know, two-thirds of global trade are composed of intermediate products and investment products. When the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports, 73% of the products covered were intermediate products and investment products. When the U.S. imposed additional tariffs on$200 billion of Chinese imports, 78% of the products covered were intermediate products and investment products.

在如此大比重的中间品和投资品中，美国企业得到的是产业链上所需进口的中间品，美国消费者得到的是物美价廉的消费品，美国进口商赚取的则是流通中的差价。从实际运行结果来说，美国加征的关税90%会由美国进口商品商承担，这个高额关税最终会转嫁到美国企业、消费者和农场主身上，最终会降低美国的社会福利。

Such a large proportion of intermediate products and investment products provide enterprises in the U.S. with the intermediate products required as part of their industrial chain, and also provide consumers in the U.S. with cheap, high-quality consumer goods. Meanwhile, importers in the U.S. earn profits from the circulation of such products. In terms of practical consequences, 90% of the tariffs added by the U.S. will be borne by importers, which will ultimately pass to U.S. enterprises, consumers and farmers, inevitably lowering social welfare of the U.S.

其次，加征关税对美国的影响会比对中国的影响要大。首先，新关税将直接影响美国的出口，美国必然会失去中国这个最大的市场。其次，美国很多的产品被禁止出口。很多高技术产品、核心零部件的主要市场也在中国。即使技术和产品再高端也要和全球产业链形成链接，否则就没有市场，也无价值可言。这种违背经济规律的做法只能加速美国的衰落，而且会使美国社会矛盾和深层次经济风险在某一个时点集中爆发。

In addition, tariffs will have greater impact on the U.S. than on China. Firstly, the new tariffs directly affect U.S. exports' access to the Chinese market. Second, many U.S. products are banned from export. The major market of many high-tech product sand core parts is China. High technology and advanced products should enter the global industrial chain, as they are of no value without access to a market. Practices against the laws of economics will merely accelerate the decline of the U.S. and trigger social problems and deep-seated economic risks at a crucial time.

最后一点，在改革开放之初，我们的对外贸易依存度高达60%，十几年以前这个数字是50%左右，现在中国的对外贸易依存度只有30%左右。中国的产业结构正在调整，国内外市场供求结构也在调整，所以中国经济发展的韧性、空间、弹性很高，哪里是美国加征高额关税就能遏制得了的?

Finally, dependence on foreign trade was as high as 60% in the early years of China's reform and opening-up, before dropping to 50% a decade ago and standing at around 30% currently. China is experiencing industrial restructuring and the structural change of supply and demand in domestic and foreign markets. As a result, there silience, space and flexibility of the economic development in China is sound. How can the U.S. high tariffs curb China's development?

作者 / 陈文玲

Author / Chen Wenling

中国国际经济交流中心总经济师

Chief Economist, China Center for International Economic Exchanges

图片 / 网络

美编 / 高铭

责任编辑：柴晶晶